Labour Market Outlook
A forward-looking indicator of UK labour market trends with unique insights on recruitment, redundancy and pay
A forward-looking indicator of UK labour market trends with unique insights on recruitment, redundancy and pay
The CIPD’s quarterly Labour Market Outlook is one of the most authoritative employment indicators in the UK and provides forward-looking labour market data and analysis on employers’ recruitment, redundancy and pay intentions.
The LMO is published every February, May, August and November. Its insights help HR professionals and employers anticipate labour market movements and to adjust and prepare accordingly. It also feeds into our consultations and engagement with the UK Government and policy-makers.
Our latest Labour Market Outlook finds that employer confidence remains subdued, with hiring intentions at historically low levels outside the pandemic. The net employment balance stands at +7 this quarter, while employment intentions in the public sector have fallen further to −11, meaning more employers expect staff numbers to decrease than increase over the next three months.
Weak hiring intentions mean recruitment pressures remain limited. Just 15% of employers anticipate significant difficulties filling vacancies in the next six months. Meanwhile, the median expected basic pay increase remains steady at 3% across all sectors.
However, employers are increasingly concerned about rising employment costs, with three-quarters expecting the Employment Rights Act to increase their costs, adding to pressures on recruitment and workforce planning.
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